2 day ago, we talk to one of our investor who have big agribusiness, he said that global warming increase atmosphere capabilities to hold water, thats explain why we witnessing more cloud in the sky. His explanation trigger our mind to rethinking of the consequences of atmosphere capabilities to hold water. Here is our thought:
1. atmosphere capabilities to hold water have limit, and we don't know how much, we certain that when the limit reached, there will be heavy rain and catastrophic flood all over the world.
2. if flood do occur, we think food price may skyrocket because limited supply, we also will experience what australia currently experience, a biblical flood,
3. if flood in australia makes mining activity suspended, the same will occuring in Indonesia, rather than too optimistic on price surge, we think we should more concern on production disruption that mya occur in mining landfield.
4. currently, money supply exceed real product, including value added that being created, significantly, this condition start to create vicious circle of inflation pressure, combine inflation pressure with possibility of more catastrophic flood, inflation pressure will be getting higher.
how we may benefit or mitigate the negative impact of more inflation induced by catastrophic flood
1. bullish to property stock, preferably with high land bank
2. bullish to pharmaceutical stock,
3. bearish to banking, multifinance, and insurance companies
4. neutral to mining stock and agribusiness stock
No comments:
Post a Comment